As we have said for months, the market shifting and now it has come. Here is an article of July 7, 2010 Toronto Star by Tony Wong with professional opinions on the real estate market this year.
"Average house prices in the Toronto market are forecast to start trending down in the second half of 2010, according to a house price survey by Royal LePage.
The real estate services company said Wednesday that house prices are expected to increase by 7 per cent by the end of this year compared with 2009. But those increases were frontloaded to the first six months of the year as buyers tried to take advantage of low interest rates and lower taxes.
The first six months of the year have seen double digit gains, a torrid pace at which analysts have consistently warned is unsustainable.
Some economists have said the market is overvalued by as much as 30 per cent in some parts of the country. Others have revised their forecasts downward because of the surprising strength of the market in the last year which has pulled sales forward.
Meanwhile volatility in the stock markets has some analysts worried that this will impact the housing sector.
“Economic indicators have improved, but my tone is becoming more grumpy,” said Toronto housing economist Will Dunning. “Recent volatility in the stock market it leads to a substantial correction could also set off a correction for the housing market.”
Volatility in the stock markets creates uncertainty for buyers who may have much of their wealth and retirement income tied up in equities. Concerns over whether the global economy is in for a W shaped recession is high on the list after problems with debt in the Euro-zone.
“There is a high degree of uncertainty, but it seems to me that economic risks are bigger on the downside than on the upside,” said Dunning.
In the second quarter of 2010, standard two storey homes in Toronto increased 10.5 per cent year over year to $589,857 according to Royal LePage.
Detached bungalows increased by 11.5 per cent to $481,933. Standard condominiums were up by 7.7 per cent to $326,913.
“I’m not convinced that recent strength in the stock market or in housing values are sustainable,” said Dunning in his most pessimistic report released this year.
Sales agents are already reporting that homes are sitting longer on the market as buyers have much more choice.
Existing home activity for June was down by 23 per cent from a year earlier, according to a report by the Toronto Real Estate Board released Tuesday."
We have noticed a slowdown the last few weeks and that should be welcome news to Toronto’s potential buyers who have been frustrated by the frenetic market. The word "bubble" has been used but not by me which I would call stable. This is not a severe correction but rather a natural reaction to the market having peaked earlier this year. An increase in the supply of homes on the market will now bring stabilization in prices and in some cities we will see both prices and unit sales decline towards the end of the year and into 2011.
This is a great time to buy and sell because we now have more stability, balance and rates are still very low, even with increases coming overv the next year or two. Know your numbers, be reasonable and have a great team working for you.
What do you think? |